by An asteroid who could level a city now has a 3.1 percent chance of beating the earth in 2032, according to NASA data released on Tuesday it is the most threatening space Rots ever registered by modern prediction.
Despite the rising opportunities, experts say that no alarm is needed. The global astronomical community keeps a close eye on the situation and the James Webb Space Telescope has been set to repair its view of the object, known as 2024 JR4, next month.
“I am not in a panic,” Bruce Betts, chief scientist of the non -profit planetary society, told AFP.
“Of course, if you see the percentages rising, you don’t feel warm and blurry and good,” he added, but he explained that as astronomers collect more data, the chance is likely before she drops to zero quickly.
2024 JR4 was first detected on December 27 last year by the El Sauce Observatory in Chile.
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Astronomers estimate that the size is between 130 and 300 feet (40-90 meters) wide, based on its brightness. Analysis of his light signatures suggests that it has a fairly typical composition, instead of being a rare metal -rich asteroid.
The International Asteroid Warning Network (IAWN), a worldwide cooperation in the field of planetary defense, issued a warning memo on 29 January after the impact chance had exceeded one percent. Since then, the figure has fluctuated, but he stays up trend.
The newest calculations of NASA estimate the impact chance at 3.1 percent, with a potential impact date of the earth of December 22, 2032.
This translates into the chances of one in 32 – about the same as correct guessing of the outcome of five consecutive coins throwing.
The last time an asteroid of more than 30 meters in size was such a significant risk, Apophis was in 2004, when it briefly had a 2.7 percent chance to hit the earth in 2029 – a possibility that was later excluded by Additional observations.
Exciting that threshold is ‘historical’, said Richard Moissl, head of the Planetary Defense Office of the European Space Agency, which makes the risk slightly lower by 2.8 percent.
Webb -observations in March
“It is a very, very rare event,” he told AFP, but added: “This is not a crisis at the moment. This is not the dinosaur murderer. This is not the planet murderer. This is the most dangerous for a city. “
Data from the Webb telescope – the most powerful space observatory – will be the key to better understand their process, according to the Betts of the planetary society.
“Webb is able to see things that are whole, very weak,” he said – what the key is because the asteroid’s job is currently bringing it to Jupiter, and the next narrow approach will only be in 2028.
If the risk rises more than 10 percent, IAWN would give a formal warning, which leads to a “recommendation for all UN members who have areas in potentially endangered areas to start terrestrial preparedness,” Moissl explained.
In contrast to the six-mile wide (10 kilometer-wide) asteroid who wiped out the dinosaurs 66 million years ago, 2024 JR4 is classified as a “city killer”-no worldwide catastrophe, but is still able to cause considerable destruction .
The potential destruction comes less from its size and more of its speed, which could be nearly 40,000 miles per hour if it strikes.
When it enters the atmosphere of the earth, the most likely scenario is an Airburst, which means that it would explode midair with a force of about eight megatones TNT – more than 500 times the power of the Hiroshima bomb.
But an impact crater cannot be excluded if the size is closer to the higher end of estimates, Betts said.
The potential impact corridor includes the eastern Pacific, Noord -Zuid -Arikika, the Atlantic Ocean, Africa, the Arabian Peninsula and South Asia -although Moissl emphasized that it is much too early for people to consider drastic decisions such as relocation.
The good news: there is enough time to act.
NASAs 2022 Dart mission proved that spacecraft can successfully change the path of an asteroid, and scientists have theoretizing other methods, such as the use of lasers to create thrust by evaporating part of the surface, pulling it out of course with The gravity of a spacecraft, or even use of nuclear explosions as a final resort.
© Agence France-Presse
